Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump

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With Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control next year, even if Republicans win a December run-off election in Georgia. While Tuesday’s election represented an unusually strong performance by a first-term president’s party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely.

Arrows show how much counties voted more Republican or Democratic in the 2022 Senate races than in the 2020 presidential election.

Source: Results data from The Associated Press as of Sunday 12 a.m. Arrows are only shown for counties that have reported almost all of their votes. See the notes below for more details on the data.

The New York Times

Some Democrats who won improved on President Biden’s 2020 margins, while others did worse but still maintained their seats. Some eked out wins, while the Democratic candidates for other offices in their states cruised to victory. The reasons vary — some faced weaker opponents endorsed by Mr. Trump, while others ran in states where issues like democracy and abortion were particularly salient.

Margin shifts since 2020 were mixed in the most competitive states. Some winning Democrats outperformed Mr. Biden, particularly Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, who defeated the Republican newcomer Blake Masters by 6 points as of Saturday. (That figure could change as more votes are counted.) In Wisconsin and North Carolina, winning Republicans slightly outperformed Mr. Trump, while the author J.D. Vance won Ohio by a smaller margin than the former president.

The most competitive states

+1.8 pts. Dem.

Hassan did betterthan Biden

democrats have won control

Arizona ›

Mark Kelly (D) wins

+5.4 pts. Dem.

Kelly did betterthan Biden

+3.2 pts. Dem.

Fetterman did betterthan Biden

democrats have won control

Georgia ›

Runoff on Dec. 9

+0.7 pts. Dem.

Warnock did betterthan Biden

democrats have won control

Nevada ›

Catherine Cortez Masto (D) wins

+1.7 pts. Rep.

Cortez Masto did worsethan Biden

+1.6 pts. Rep.

Johnson did betterthan Trump

+2.3 pts. Rep.

Budd did betterthan Trump

democrats have won control

Ohio ›

J.D. Vance (R) wins

+1.5 pts. Dem.

Vance did worsethan Trump

Senate races with winning margins of 10 points or less. Margins may change as the rest of the vote is counted in each state.

Some of the biggest shifts from 2020 were in solidly blue and red states. Democratic candidates in New York, Maryland and Connecticut won comfortably, but by much slimmer margins than Biden received.

Solid Democrat states

democrats have won control

Hawaii ›

Brian Schatz (D) wins

+15.8 pts. Dem.

Schatz did betterthan Biden

democrats have won control

Vermont ›

Peter Welch (D) wins

+4.8 pts. Dem.

Welch did betterthan Biden

democrats have won control

Maryland ›

Chris Van Hollen (D) wins

+7.0 pts. Rep.

Van Hollen did worsethan Biden

+5.2 pts. Rep.

Blumenthal did worsethan Biden

democrats have won control

Illinois ›

Tammy Duckworth (D) wins

+3.4 pts. Rep.

Duckworth did worsethan Biden

democrats have won control

New York ›

Chuck Schumer (D) wins

+9.9 pts. Rep.

Schumer did worsethan Biden

democrats have won control

Colorado ›

Michael Bennet (D) wins

+0.2 pts. Rep.

Bennet did worsethan Biden

Margins may change as the rest of the vote is counted in each state. California, Oregon and Washington State are not shown because not enough of the vote has been reported to make comparisons.

While Republican Senate candidates in red states were more likely to improve upon Mr. Trump’s 2020 margins, they did lose some ground in a handful of states.

Solid Republican states

democrats have won control

Iowa ›

Charles E. Grassley (R) wins

+4.0 pts. Rep.

Grassley did betterthan Trump

democrats have won control

Missouri ›

Eric Schmitt (R) wins

+2.1 pts. Dem.

Schmitt did worsethan Trump

democrats have won control

Florida ›

Marco Rubio (R) wins

+13.1 pts. Rep.

Rubio did betterthan Trump

democrats have won control

Indiana ›

Todd Young (R) wins

+4.7 pts. Rep.

Young did betterthan Trump

democrats have won control

Kansas ›

Jerry Moran (R) wins

+8.7 pts. Rep.

Moran did betterthan Trump

+2.4 pts. Dem.

Paul did worsethan Trump

+14.2 pts. Rep.

Scott did betterthan Trump

+6.5 pts. Dem.

Mullin did worsethan Trump

democrats have won control

Idaho ›

Mike Crapo (R) wins

+1.1 pts. Rep.

Crapo did betterthan Trump

democrats have won control

Oklahoma ›

James Lankford (R) wins

+0.9 pts. Dem.

Lankford did worsethan Trump

democrats have won control

Arkansas ›

John Boozman (R) wins

+7.2 pts. Rep.

Boozman did betterthan Trump

democrats have won control

Alabama ›

Katie Britt (R) wins

+10.3 pts. Rep.

Britt did betterthan Trump

+17.3 pts. Rep.

Thune did betterthan Trump

Margins may change as the rest of the vote is counted in each state. Alaska, Louisiana, North Dakota and Utah are not shown because the party breakdown of candidates in this election do not allow comparable margins to be calculated.

Comparisons to other statewide races

In several competitive states, voters split their tickets, selecting a Senate candidate from a different party than their choice for governor or secretary of state. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a Republican, won reelection by more than 15 points. But Senator Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, also won reelection, beating out Don Buldoc, a far-right candidate who has supported the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.

Competitive Senate races with winning margins of 10 points or less are shown. North Carolina is not included because it did not have elections for the other top statewide offices. Margins may change as the rest of the vote is counted in each state.

In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, advanced to a runoff election against Herschel Walker, while the Republicans Brian Kemp, the governor, and Brad Raffensperger, the secretary of state, won by healthy margins. In Pennsylvania, John Fetterman won his Senate race, but his support lagged behind fellow Democrat and candidate for governor, Josh Shapiro.

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